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We power your business with WHY

Understand the "Why," Change the Future.

The term "Causal Relationships" might sound complex. Yet, in our daily lives, we are constantly asking "Why?" The truth is, most of today's AI lacks the ability to answer this fundamental question. xCausal™ is designed not just to show you "what happened before," but to explain "why it happens" and "how to change future outcomes." It is an AI built to empower human reasoning.

xCausal™

The Causal AI tool for understanding "why"

It enables you to identify causes and estimate the
specific effectiveness of countermeasures,
providing answers to "what-if" questions.

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Causal AI Assistant

Custom solutions that translate the expertise of top talent into AI

We model the insights of experts and organizations
using causal relationships to build AI systems that
support human decision-making.

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USERS & PARTNERS

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InsightLead
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asics
biprogy
dnp
gck
InsightLead
intage
lts
mandom
ms&ad
nhsy
okayama
ricoh
sigmaxyz
t-pec

Custom solutions that translate the expertise into AI

The Agentic AI System, based on Causal AI

The "Causal AI Assistant." An innovative solution that models the knowledge of highly skilled experts and specialists as causal relationships, enabling its digital utilization within organizations. It functions not only as a one-time causal analysis tool but also as an intelligent engine within the organization, continuously updating accumulated information and expertise from data to support operations and decision-making. We provide comprehensive services for implementing the semantic layer required for AI agents to function properly within your organization, as well as for system implementation tailored to your specific objectives. Once the AI system is up and running, it can operate autonomously.

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xCausal Causal AI Assistant

Causal AI Tools for Causal Analysis

xCausal logo

xCausal responds to these concerns.

Unable to discover the cause of
issues using data.

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Discovering cause candidates and estimating effects leads to quick solutions and actions.

R&D and product planning are not
progressing due to lack of data analysts.

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Can easily discover hypotheses even not a data analysis professional.

Want to systemize the personal
know-how and make it usable.

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Tacit knowledge within an organization can be capitalized as causal models.

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Understand the relationship between cause and effect, and learn how to change the future

xCausal™ is a groundbreaking causal AI tool for causal analysis that organizes the relationship between cause and effect and answers hypothetical "What-If?" questions, such as "If I do this, how will the outcome change?" By incorporating an intuitive UI, interactive features, and task automation powered by AI agents, xCausal™ has revolutionized this previously complex field—which required academic expertise and programming skills—making it accessible to everyone. xCausal™ supports human thinking and evolves daily with the goal of becoming a "trustworthy AI" that is interpretable and explainable.

You can easily model cause-and-effect relationships

Prior Knowledge Configuration & Causal Discovery

It automatically proposes a causal structure as a directed acyclic graph (DAG) based on the selected data. VELDT employs a system that allows users to choose from multiple causal discovery algorithms. While these algorithms can uncover causal relationships, no single algorithm can perfectly derive the structure; therefore, the system includes features that enable experts to easily make manual corrections. Furthermore, by pre-configuring known cause-and-effect relationships as rules, the system can present highly reliable models from the very first run. In addition to configuration features, the system supports the use of causal knowledge extraction LLM technology to extract causal relationships from text data such as manuals and encyclopedias. (Custom support available) Pre-configured prior knowledge compensates for the limitations of causal discovery.

You can determine whether a causal relationship exists and assess the effectiveness of the measures

Causal Inference

We present the effects of implementing a particular measure versus not implementing it (i.e., when a change is made versus when it is not) in concrete numerical terms. xCausal™ calculates these effects by applying the "adjustment formula" from a theoretically established "structural causal model" to eliminate the influence of other variables on the results. In addition to the Average Treatment Effect (ATE: the average causal effect across the entire population) and the Stratified Average Treatment Effect (the average treatment effect by group), we can calculate the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE), which estimates the effect that varies by individual or entity. We can also identify both direct and indirect effects.

You can see the causes of anomalies and changes

Root Cause Analysis (RCA)

It is possible to identify factors that have a significant impact on key indicators. When an anomaly or malfunction occurs, or when trends in results change, you can check what influenced the outcome and by how much, ranked by contribution rate, from among the other factors within the causal graph. Its true value is realized through system integration.

You can see conditional treatment effects and "what-if" scenarios

Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) and Counterfactual Analysis

The effects of interventions vary around the mean. In other words, there are individuals for whom the effect is high and others for whom it is low; some experience a positive effect, while others experience a negative one. If you are interested in these specific individuals, you can use the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) to estimate how the effect of the intervention would change if the conditions were made similar. It can also address effects under hypothetical conditions that differ from reality—for example, answering a counterfactual question such as, "What if a person in their 60s were in their 20s?"

You can assess the model's reliability and gain insights into potential improvements

Robustness Test and Causal Variables Recommendations

It comes standard with a feature that tests the robustness of the causal graph you have created. You can identify weaknesses such as the need for a third variable—known as a confounding factor—in the relationships between variables, as well as issues like insufficient data or lack of balance. You can also use Smallytics™, a feature that recommends third variables likely to be causally related based on time-series data, and the Assistant feature to get hints for improving your model.

With an interactive UI, you can delegate tasks to AI agents, making analysis more efficient

Assistant (Agentic AI)

Through the conversational UI, you can ask the AI agent to handle time-consuming tasks. For example, evaluating the robustness of a model you've created or exploring improvement strategies based on that evaluation can be time-consuming, but you can leave these tasks to the agent.

A Major Advantage of Causal AI: CATE (Conditional Average Treatment Effect)

"It is difficult to know true causality." Why is that? It is because causality is nothing more than determining how an outcome changes when a single factor is altered (treatment/intervention). In doing so, unless all other conditions are kept constant, we cannot rule out the possibility that the outcome changed due to the influence of other factors. In other words, if the subject is a human, then the same person must be in the same place at the same time. We cannot know the true nature of causality without comparing it to a result that did not occur—a "counterfactual." This is known as the "fundamental problem of causal inference." For this reason, the gold standard for assessing causality is a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT), which compares groups. However, there are many cases where RCTs cannot be conducted due to constraints based on ethics, infrastructure, and cost. "Causal Inference," a method to estimate causality from observational data, has since been developed. On the other hand, the treatment effect observed in a group is always an estimate based on the overall average. The existence of an average implies that there are individuals who are above average and those who are below. In today's technologically advanced world, the need to individually optimize everything—from marketing and healthcare to finance, services, and manufacturing—to provide added value tailored to each individual has increased. CATE (Conditional Average Treatment Effect) calculates the causal effect of a group based on individual conditions to calculate a causal effect closer to that of a single individual. One reason Causal AI can now be calculated is by leveraging causal inference and machine learning. xCausal™ provides CATE functionality by default.

xCausal CATE

Is the mortality rate higher the more vaccines we get?
Why it's important to look for Causation rather than Correlation

In the early days of the pandemic, COVID-19 countries and regions reported the shocking finding that "vaccinated individuals had a higher mortality rate from Covid-19 than unvaccinated individuals." As shown in the graph below, when overall population data was plotted on a single graph, a "upward-sloping" relationship emerged alongside increasing vaccination rates. However, as many of you may recall, back when vaccine production could not keep up with demand, vaccines were prioritized for high-risk elderly individuals. The underlying reason is that the proportion of elderly people—who have a higher mortality rate to begin with—was high relative to the general population, so it appeared as though the mortality rate was rising the more people were vaccinated. In fact, when the data is broken down by age group, a "downward-sloping" relationship emerges across all age groups: as vaccination rates rise, mortality rates fall. This is an example of how mistaking correlation for causation can lead to significantly different results.

Vaccination and mortality causal graph

Usage

xCausal™ and the Causal AI Assistant (customization required) go beyond causal understanding to serve as the intelligent engine at the core of AI systems that leverage organizational knowledge, enabling diverse applications.

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  1. Quality improvement, fault prediction, and safety management in manufacturing and infrastructure industries
  2. Realization of personalized services in healthcare, financial institutions, service industries, etc.
  3. Hypothesis discovery and accelerated planning in research and planning departments
  4. Drug discovery applications in the pharmaceutical industry
  5. Optimization of marketing strategies and promotion budgets through continuous effectiveness verification
  6. Enhancing consumer satisfaction and churn management
  7. Logistics forecasting and supply chain optimization considering exogenous mechanisms
  8. Fraud detection and new product development in financial institutions and insurance companies
  9. Talent management and workplace environment optimization
  10. Evidence-based policy making (EBPM) and smart city planning/operation by governments and municipalities

How To Use

xCausal™ is a SaaS tool available for use with contract or credit card payments. In addition to core features like Causal Rule Configuration, Causal Variable Recommendation, Causal Discovery, Causal Inference (including ATE and Stratified Causal Effects), and Robustness Assessment, it offers advanced capabilities such as Causal Knowledge Extraction LLM and CATE (Conditional Average Treatment Effect).etc. We also offer professional services including implementation workshops, consulting, and custom implementation. The "Causal AI Assistant," provided based on xCausal™, is designed to be used in conjunction with these professional services. Please feel free to contact us.